RECAP

January 2006

by Elisabeth Rareshide

Dr. Steven Leibo, professor of Modern Global History and Politics at The Sage Colleges, shared a wide range of thoughts on the place of the United States in the world in 2006. Since 2000, Dr. Leibo has organized trips to Vietnam for Vietnam War veterans, college students, and Vietnamese-Americans and has created a documentary on the effects of the Vietnam War on the Capital Region. He co-founded and edits an internet community that discusses Asian international relations.

To start the discussion, Dr. Leibo listed worthy sources of pride for America: it is the most powerful country in history, it has excellent resources, it controls the financial world (dominance of the US$), it is the only country with veto power in the International Monetary Fund, and it has a powerful military with bases worldwide.

Today the issue that looms largest in most Americans’ minds is the Iraq War. Dr. Leibo predicts that most troops will probably leave Iraq soon because staying is untenable, the Iraqis do not want us there, a truly democratic Iraq must be independent, and the war has become unpopular in the U.S. because of mistakes, cost (blood and treasure) and the extended timetable. The effort originally started with ambitious goals. Administration officials hoped that creating a democratic Iraq would have a domino impact that would remake the entire Middle East. They believed that improving Iraq would stabilize Israeli/Palestinian relations and undermine Hezbollah (not to mention depose the unsavory dictator Saddam Hussein). These goals were supportable only because of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Dr. Leibo predicts that the likely outcomes of the Iraq War are opposite of the intended goals. Kurdistan will probably secede and threaten Iran, Turkey, and Syria, which all have Kurdish minorities. Iraq will be weak and sectarian. Iran will gain the most from the upheaval because Iraq’s Shiite majority will be dependent on Iran. Contrary to fears of a possible future civil war, Dr. Leibo categorically stated that Iraq is already embroiled in civil war. He expects that in a few years, Americans will believe that the war was not worth the costs. Some Iraqis may agree because, at the very least, a totalitarian government is predictable whereas civil war is chaos.

As for the War on Terror, we have captured many planners of the September 11 attacks, but have not addressed the “franchising” evolution of Al Qaeda. Although Bin Laden’s section has weakened, Al Qaeda as a concept has grown and attracted followers around the world because of the perception that the United States’ actions have proven that Bin Laden was right about us. Dr. Leibo emphasized that perception was four times as important as reality. People think that the U.S. wants to stay in Iraq permanently after seeing our role in starting the war and not finding weapons of mass destruction. The scandal at Abu Ghraib exacerbated the perception that the U.S. is not truly interested in the welfare of Iraqis.

Looking back through the lens of history, Dr. Leibo explained that when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the U.S. supported Afghans and other Arabs to join the fight and encouraged revolutionary activism. Now the foreign fighters who are separate from the Iraqi nationalists have become the new generation of “Afghans,” who have the same revolutionary fervor but direct it against the U.S.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda were deeply integrated in Afghanistan, and when Afghanistan attacked us, we had to fight them. But Afghanistan never offered a level of potential success as enticing as success in Iraq. Afghanistan held little interest for Americans except for being the source of the attacks. Iraq, on the other hand, had oil and the opportunity to remake the Middle East in our image. (For more information on the Iraq War, Dr. Leibo recommends the book The Assassins’ Gate: America in Iraq by George Packer.) In the meantime, most Americans have largely forgotten about the war in Afghanistan. Congressman Murtha related that a veteran from Afghanistan told him that the governor of Pennsylvania sent him a letter thanking him for his service in Iraq.

In order to avoid another terrorist attack, we face the choice of self-destruction if we do not balance protecting ourselves with protecting our civil liberties. Dr. Leibo questioned which was more dangerous – the terrorists or ourselves.

In the last century nations learned how they could destroy the entire world. In this century the democratization of weapons of mass destruction in an address-less world means that deterrents of mutual destruction are useless because no specific country is responsible for the actions of fringe groups. Threatening an amorphous worldwide organization is much harder than threatening another country planted firmly in one clear location. Dr. Leibo shared his fear that potential terrorists could easily obtain unsecured nuclear material from the former Soviet Union. The U.S. has not devoted sufficient resources to this problem and does not expect to finish securing this nuclear material before 2024. Several congressmen are deeply worried and produced The Last Best Chance, a movie depicting a fictitious vision of how the problem of unsecured nuclear material will be addressed.

President George W. Bush declared, “The best defense is a good offense.” Dr. Leibo countered that so many resources have been devoted to offense that we are not prepared for actual attacks. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina starkly demonstrated our poor level of preparation. We need to fight terrorism AND lessen its impact when it does occur.

The U.S. emerged as the sole superpower following the Cold War. Now both our allies and our enemies think that we blew our chance to be a good world leader after seeing the bungled 2000 election, the fall of Enron and related scandals, and the development of one-party democracy. As one worried world citizen asked, “What happens to iron when gold rusts?” Alan Chartock, president of WAMC, has declared that if we did not have a one-party democracy, President Bush would have been impeached already. The U.S. has applied the concept of preemptive war against long-term threats, not just immediate threats. Iraq could have developed into a dangerous power in 5-10 years, but it suddenly became an immediate candidate for preemptive war.

The U.S. is the only developed country that is regressing environmentally in spite of global warming. After 1998 we used more imported oil than domestic oil. At this rate, by 2010 we will need 60% of our oil from unstable sources, and we are loosing the necessary influence to get oil. Each new source has become problematic. The Shah of Iran left in 1979. The September 11 attackers came from Saudi Arabia. Iraq is in the midst of civil war. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela does not have to sell oil to the U.S. and has chosen the option of making contracts with China.

Dr. Leibo explained that China has historically been the center of human accomplishment. While the U.S. rose to preeminence, China suffered a bad century – barely a hiccup considering its long history. Now China is back and will refuse to be poor for our benefit. China has an authoritarian government that is abandoning Communism in favor of a globalized, capitalist economy. Now the model of manufacturing prowess, China wants to follow the United States’ pattern of peaceful emergence as a global power during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In order to follow this model, China needs to keep the U.S. from feeling threatened. Dr. Leibo likened the U.S. to a Zoroastrian who characterizes the world through the lens of the struggle between good and evil. Now China has become the archetype of evil for Americans. Unfortunately Americans are using dated information and still use the terms “Red China” and “Communist China” without realizing that China is changing rapidly.

Globalization is the integration of the global community through finances, instant communication, and rapid movement of goods. The U.S. largely created globalization and has been used to monopolizing the advantages. Now the advantages are spreading globally. Communism, the epitome of a centralized economic structure, inherently adapts poorly to rapid change. Countries are abandoning Communism in order to take advantage of globalization. Employers buy international goods and services and outsource anything that can be digitized. For example, India has become a service center. (Dr. Leibo recommends the books Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East by Clyde Prestowitz and Globalization and Its Discontents by Joseph Stiglitz.) Although people absolutely need a good education to get good jobs, now they also need “smart hands” – the ability to do a job in which one’s physical presence is required – in order to avoid being outsourced out of their careers. A financial analyst who works personally with clients is better prepared for globalization than an accountant whose number-crunching analysis can be performed anywhere in the world. Unfortunately Dr. Leibo does not see anyone with clout in the U.S. government who understands how to deal with globalization and smooth the transition.

Prompted by a member of the audience, Dr. Leibo addressed the miscalculation of the true cost of traditional fossil fuel energy. Americans are deeply suspicious of any governmental control of the economy because it conjures up fears of a slippery slope to Communism. Consequently the U.S. government refuses to set energy policy or provide leadership to speak for communities.

Dr. Leibo believes that globalization has helped more people than it has hurt and that the world now needs globalization of environmental standards, respect for human rights, and the minimum wage. New currencies are rising and at some point the world economy will turn to a non-dollar currency. Americans must learn to adapt to a changing world that they cannot control.