Rebuttal : Lincoln
and Kennedy: Bound by coincidence
Avijit Roy
[Shayon is a 11 year old school kid, the youngest participant in this forum]
Dear Sayon,
I welcome you in MM for coming out with such an interesting post. However, I
think you are still quite young and very enthusiastic and like other cute little
children you got astonished while you found some miraculous coincidence between
Lincoln and John Kennedy in your library books. But I know, When you will
grow older and will develop your skeptical mind, you will definitely perceive
that Most improbable coincidences likely result from play of random
events. The very nature of randomness assures that combing random data will
yield some pattern.
Let us now take a look on Abraham Lincoln and
Kennedy's miraculous coincidence through a skeptic's eye :
Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy
It is always possible to comb random data to find some regularities. A
well-known qualitative example is the comparison of coincidences in the lives of
Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy, two presidents with seven letters in their
last names, and elected to office 100 years apart, 1860 and 1960. Both were
assassinated on Friday in the presence of their wives, Lincoln in Ford's theater
and Kennedy in an automobile made by the Ford motor company. Both assassins went
by three names: John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, with fifteen letters in
each complete name. Oswald shot Kennedy from a warehouse and fled to a theater,
and Booth shot Lincoln in a theater and fled to a barn (a kind of warehouse).
Both succeeding vice-presidents were southern Democrats and former senators
named Johnson (Andrew and Lyndon), with thirteen letters in their names and born
100 years apart, 1808 and 1908.
But if we compare other relevant attributes we fail to
find coincidences. Lincoln and Kennedy were born and died in different months,
dates, and states, and neither date is 100 years apart. Their ages at
death were different, as were the names of their wives. Of course,
had any of these features corresponded for the two presidents, it would have
been included in the list of "mysterious" coincidences. For any two
people with reasonably eventful lives it is possible to find coincidences
between them. Two people meeting at a party often find some striking coincidence
between them, but what it is -- birthdate, hometown, etc. -- is not predicted in
advance.
Here are some comments made by Kevin T. Kilty from rational point of view
on some miraculous cosmological "co-incidence" between Lincoln
and Kennedy ( http://www.kilty.com/l_and_k.htm
).
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860.
John F. Kennedy was elected President in 1960.
Comment
This is, of course, no more remarkable than two victims of assassination
being elected 96 years apart or 104. One hundred is just such a nice, round
number that people see extreme significance in it--much like they did the
year 2000, for instance. There are many people who
have been elected president 100 years apart. And each being assassinated
doesn't deepen this coincidence one iota, because we chose two assassinated
leaders and then found that by coincidence they were elected 100 years
apart.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846.
John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
Comment
Obviously people might think that both men entering politics 100 years
apart, and then being elected president also 100 years apart is a great
coincidence. However, when two people are separated by about X years in
history, it seems very likely, in fact more likely than not, that major
milestones in their lives are separated by roughly the same increment as
well. This is entirely expected. At least it is more expected than their
being elected to congress 100 years apart, and being elected president 150
years apart, because one of them would have been in congress as long as
Strom Thurmond. The parallel in political careers diverges here, for Kennedy
won a Senate seat in 1952, while Lincoln lost his Senate bid in 1858.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters.
Comment
OK, and I might add that their successor's names also had 7 letters. Perhaps
seven letter last names are quite common.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.
Comment
It would be more amazing if they hadn't been concerned with civil rights,
because civil rights were THE SOCIAL CONCERNS of the day in
both instances. During both of these time periods the country was nearly
torn to pieces over the issue. In fact, to characterize the Lincoln
Presidency as being "particularly concerned with civil rights"
seems a comic understatement.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both wives lost their children while living in the White House.
Comment
This is a muddied statement that ought to read "Both their wives lost a
child while living in the White House." In fact the Lincoln's lost
three of their four children before the children reached adulthood. The
death of children was not uncommon at the time. I am unable to find
information regarding the Kennedy child, but I recall this being a
miscarriage, which is not only surprisingly common, but makes the two losses
not really comparable.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both Presidents were shot on a Friday.
Comment
I originally thought this was a mistake through a mistaken calculation of
weekdays. I parodied the coincidence with, "This would be an excellent
coincidence if it weren't for Kennedy being shot on a Thursday."
However, a Mr. Goldman wrote to point out my error and I stand corrected.
It's nice to see that someone reads this stuff. I just wish people would
write for reasons other than to point out my errors. Ah, then Mr. Goldman
wrote back to explain that Lincoln was actually
shot on Thursday and died on Friday, whereas
Kennedy was shot and died on Friday. Once again the full story
has not quite the parallel that the simple story suggests.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both Presidents were shot in the head.
Comment
When someone is trying to kill a person, they will likely shoot them in the
head. It is more effective than shooting them in the leg, for instance. So
this is entirely expected.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy.
Kennedy's secretary was named Lincoln.
Comment
This is quite difficult to analyze. How many secretaries and assistants did
each have? Did Kennedy choose Lincoln as secretary from a pool of applicants
because of his name? Sometimes coincidence is not all it seems. In fact,
Robert Lincoln the eldest son of Abraham Lincoln, was saved from a nasty
accident by J. Wilkes Booth's brother. Yet another cosmic connection? Most
recently a Mr. Patrick Vincent wrote to tell me that his research on the web
turned up evidence that Lincoln had no secretary
named Kennedy. The interesting story of this myth is told at the web site synnergy
. Another alleged coincidence dies.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were assassinated by Southerners.
Comment
J. Wilkes Booth was born in Maryland. I suppose that if one were trying to
force a cosmic connection, then Maryland might pass muster as a southern
state. It was in the Union, however. The best a person could argue is that
Wilkes was a southern sympathizer maybe.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both were succeeded by Southerners.
Comment
OK, granted; but it isn't as though each man having a southerner as Vice
President was a random occurence. Each was a northern politician trying to
win an election by choosing a southern running mate. Things that people do
by design are not coincidences.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both successors were named Johnson.
Comment
It isn't as though Johnson is a strange last name.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808.
Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
Comment
There is that 100 year separation again.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln, was born in 1839.
Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy, was born in 1939.
Comment
They are trying for the 100 year thing again! It didn't work this time,
though. Booth was actually born in 1838. What
I found interesting about researching Lee Harvey Oswald's age is the
misinformation regarding it in web documents.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both assassins were known by their three names.
Comment
A biography of Booth that I found on the world wide web suggested that he
was known as J. Wilkes Booth. A Mr. Vsevolod Onyshkevych wrote to me and
advanced the theory that killers are often known by their full (three) names
and that this may be applied to each after the fact. He also provided
a list of stunning length of the names of killers found from biographies on
the web. Yes, Mr. Onyshkevych, the web is full of stange information.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Both names are comprised of fifteen letters.
Comment
What a bore I'm going to be here. Let us suppose that the length of a name
is a random variable (Poisson perhaps) where the probability of very long or
very short names is small and the expected length is about 5 letters. Then,
the distribution of the summed lengths of three names is going to be sharply
peaked at 15 letters. In other words, this might be common. I can think of 5
members of my immediate family who meet this test also.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Lincoln was shot at the theatre named 'Kennedy'.
Kennedy was shot in a car called 'Lincoln'.
Comment
I had trouble believing what I was reading here, because I
recalled distinctly from High School or earlier that Lincoln was shot at
Ford's Theatre. Practically any person with high school education
would recall this fact. Moreover, this seems to be a corruption of the
original list of coicindences in which this one was "Lincoln was shot
in a theatre built by Ford. Kennedy was shot in a car built by Ford."
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Booth ran from the theatre and was caught in a warehouse.
Oswald ran from a warehouse and was caught in a theatre.
Comment
Well, I could explain this coincidence as resulting from the shear number of
theaters and warehouses, but the story of Booth's escape is so complex that
to characterize it as "ran from a theatre and was caught in a
warehouse" skirts the suburbs of misrepresentation. Booth was
ultimately caught in a tobacco shed on a farm, which hardly qualifies as a
warehouse.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
Booth and Oswald were assassinated before their trials.
Comment
Booth died in a gunbattle, so reports of his assassination are highly
exaggerated.
- Alleged Amazing Fact
This is the climactic last alleged fact that the author decribed as
"the kicker."
A week before Lincoln was shot, he was in Monroe, Maryland.
A week before Kennedy was shot, he was in Marilyn Monroe.
Comment
I was pretty sure at this point that the whole e-mail was a joke.
Nevertheless, I have gone this far, and I may as well finish. Marilyn Monroe
died over one year before Kennedy's assassination. Once again Mr.
Onyshkevych has written to tell me that there is no Monroe, Maryland known
to the U.S. Post Office at least. Perhaps there was in 1865.
Now you see Shayon, most of the miraculous co-incidences are actually not
miraculous. They are wide-spread lies and just wishful exaggeration. Then again
question comes why do actually people spread lies and exaggeration ? It is
clearly explained by Prabir Ghosh in his famous book "Olukik noy,
Loukik" (Nothing supernatural: Part-1):
Now, as a rational being, let us try to open our mind. Let
us try to be more skeptic, let us try to be more logical. Let us try to be a
real "Mukto-mona" by taking the following oath :
You will certainly do it from now on, right Shayon ? :-)
A warm regards to you..
Avijit