Rebuttal : Lincoln and Kennedy: Bound by coincidence
Aparthib Zaman.
In response to : http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/5021
I would like to discuss some generalities relating to
coincidences and "strange connections" that would apply to all
coincidences, not just "Kennedy's and Lincoln's strange connection"
that Shayon's post referred to. I must admit that Shayon only
presented some interesting facts of coincidences (Although some of those
"facts" may be distorted as Avijit's research has shown) not drawn any
conclusions from it. My discussion is general and applies to those who may
"see" some divine connection in those coincidences.
The desire to see divine connections or design in mundane occurrences of
coincidences is a strong human instinct arising out of a yearning for a world
beyond this observable one and rooted in the desire for life after death in
order to find a meaning of this life and to move on. This yearning was behind
Jung's theory of Synchronicity, which is nothing but a pseudo-scientific
mish-mash, although in his desperation he even tried to enlist some help from
his friends well-versed in Quantum Physics. He tried to link an aspect of
Quantum Mechanics called Quantum non-locality (Einstein called it spooky) with
apparent connections between human experiences. A case of pure quackery like
astrology. Quantum non-locality has many alternate scientific explanations
and is not "spooky" anymore, although it still remains the ultimate
epistemological intellectual challenge to physicists.
Anyway, the fact is that all coincidences appear to be strange connections to
many because of (a) improper
understanding of statistics
(b) selective bias of human mind,
and
(c) sometimes due to succumbing to intentional
manipulations of facts.
Misunderstanding of statistics can lead one to view a
not-so-unlikely occurrence as very unlikely. Selective bias leads one
to forget and ignore the majority of events, all of which are individually very
unlikely, not treat them as coincidences or strange connections but only the
ones that appear to be interesting to the human mind.
For example, if we roll ten dice the likelihood of getting the sequence
6526553214 is the same as 6666666666 both of which are equally likely and also
very unlikely to occur in one trial.
(1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6x1/6) But the former will not catch
anyone's attention, the latter will.
When one is dealt a bridge hand of thirteen cards, the probability of being
dealt that particular hand is less than one in 600 billion. Still, it would be
absurd for someone to be dealt a hand, examine it carefully, calculate that the
probability of getting it is less than one in 600 billion, and then conclude
that he must not have been dealt that very hand because it is so very improbable
or that it must be a divine connection for him to get this rare hand!
Another important aspect of probability that is not appreciated by many is that
time and numbers play a very important role in statistics. A very unlikely event
will eventually occur given enough time. Or, equivalently, if many trials are
conducted for an unlikely event simultaneously, one of the trials will
materialize the very unlikely. Those who have studied statistical Physics will
recognize this in the Ergodic Hypothesis, a very important concept. Sometimes we
are amazed that out the billions of known stars and their planets only Sun
harbours wonderful life forms and only on the planet earth. Is that a surprise?
Life requires a sensitive range of conditions of temperature, gravity, density
of atmosphere, right distance from star, right tilt of the axis, etc., for life
to evolve. Only earth satisifes this condition. Its like 6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6X6
people rolling ten dice at once. One of them will certainly roll 6666666666.
Any surprise? All the billions of planets are like ten rolled dice. Only one
(earth) is 666666666 (i.e., has conditions suitable for life forms). So here we
are, on planet earth wondering about life. If planet "X", instead,
satisfied the conditions of life instead of earth then we would be on planet
"X". But then we would call "X" earth. It's only a matter of
label.
How about the lottery? One lucky person picks the right number. Someone has to
win it if all the numbers are sold out. No divine connection. Yet the winning
person may view it as a divine connection for him to win it. Even if that lucky
person has just lost his home and belongings in a fire that would not make it
any more divine. Because again if anything can happen at all, it will eventually
happen, if one waited long enough. No one who has lost his belongings in
fire has ever won in a lottery before, in million years of human history,
humanity waited long enough for it to happen and finally it did happen to
Mr. X on day Y of Year Z. By the same logic a billionaire may also someday
win a lottery ticket (Talking about carrying coal to Newcastle!) it would
not have any different significance from the former case. No amount of coincidences
of PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE (i.e., natural) events can point to divine or
supernatural connections. Occam's Razor will always point to a natural
explanation through an eventual realization of a very unlikely (but not
impossible) event.
A nuts and bolts calcualtion may help dispel the mystic of strange coincidences
that we sometimes experience in life (Like you were thinking of an old friend in
an airport and then suddenly he appears, approaching you). A person may have 100
distinct experiences a day. In ten years, for 1000 people
that would mean 4950x3650x1000=18,06750000 pairs of events. So its very likely
that some of those events will be of strange coincidence types to some of those
1000 persons.
As a final example, let's take the case of "prophetic" dreams.
Sometimes a person "X" dreams of an event and the event takes
place soon after the dream. X sees a divine connection in his dream. Now,
consider this. Normal people have about 25 dreams/night. With 250 million people
in US there must be billions of dreams dreamt everynight and trillions in a
year. With so many dreams, some are bound to match with reality and seem
prophetic. It would be astonishing if there wasn't any (p-55 Schick).
Some may object that the connections do not have to be divine. They could be
natural, but not mere chances. There must be some deep natural (scientific)
connections between them. This is what Jung had hinted at. But that is a mere "May
be". A natural or scientific connection can only be made through scientific
method itself. And science has not found any connections between such
coincidences. Nor is there any need to. All such connections have been
explained nicely through Occam's Razor by probability theory, which is an
important tool of science as well.
I hope to have dispelled some myth and misconceptions about coincidences. I
apologize if I seemed to have ruined any hope for divine supernatural connection
that certainly appears to be a more appealing option. And one can continue to
believe in that. After all, placebos are as effective (or more) a therapy as
real drugs. But if it did inspire a little bit of interest in critcial thinking
then I suggest going further and read the following two books.
1. How to Think of Weird Things - Theodore Schick
& Lewis Vaugn
2. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its
Consequences - John Allen Paulos.
Thanks.
Aparthib